OTA PROJECT PROPOSAL WIRELESS TECHNOLOGIES AND THE NATIONAL INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT DESCRIPTION: The development of a National Information Infrastructure (NII) to serve the Nation's expanding communications and information needs is a high priority for both Congress and the Administration. Wireless technologies and systems--such as TV and radio broadcasting, new personal communications services, and many kinds of satellite communications--will form an integral part of the NII, but the role they will play and the implications of their widespread adoption are not yet clear. In particular, integrating the many wireless and wireline systems that will comprise the NII will prove a difficult challenge for Federal, State, and local regulators. Many factors, including standards development, interconnection and pricing arrangements, and differing industry regulation, must be addressed before radio-based technologies and systems can become an effective part of the NII. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the problems and promises of integrating wireless technologies into the NII. This study would: identify and discuss the various wireless technologies that could contribute to the development of the NII; assess the barriers to greater or more efficient use of radio-based systems; and explore the economic, regulatory, and social implications of the convergence of wireline and wireless technologies in the NII. The study will also present policy options addressing relevant wireless/NII issues. CONGRESSIONAL INTEREST: This study was requested in a joint letter from Representative George E. Brown, Jr., Chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology and Representative Rick Boucher, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Science. Representative Michael G. Oxley has also provided a letter of support. SISTER AGENCY COORDINATION: None of the other Congressional support agencies have activities specifically addressing the role of wireless technologies in the NII, although GAO is exploring NII topics. PROJECT SCHEDULE: The assessment will begin in February 1994, after TAB approval in late January. The study will take approximately 14 months to complete, with TAB delivery expected in March 1995 and publication in June 1995. OTA STAFF CONTACTS: David P. Wye, Project Director, 202/228-6945,dwye@ota.gov, Todd LaPorte, Analyst, 202/228-6776, tlaporte@ota.gov, Alan Buzacott, Analyst, 202/228-6778, abuzacott@ota.gov, Greg Wallace, Research Assistant, 202/228-6932, gwallace@ota.gov Mailing Address: Congress of the United States OTA-TCT Washington, DC 20510-8025 FAX: (202) 228-6098 I. Background The idea behind the National Information Infrastructure has evolved over several years and is the result of many forces. Most notably, the convergence of previously separate communication and computing technologies and applications--such as computer networking, telephone and cable television systems, and entertainment and information services--has played a major role in driving the concept of the NII forward. Originally, conceptions of a national information infrastructure focused on the development of a national computer network--the National Research and Education Network (NREN)--which the Federal government played a key role in financing and developing. The idea of the information infrastructure broadened, however, as telephone and cable companies--driven by advances in fiber optics, digital signal processing, and data compression--began to promote their ability to provide a more diverse range of services using their own networks. The role envisioned for the government in developing a national information infrastructure also began to change--no longer would it play the leading role of developer and financier. Rather, the private sector became the focus for developing NII technologies and services, with the government playing a supporting role designed to encourage private sector NII investments and promote research and development in new NII-related technologies and applications. The government will continue to play a critical role in advancing social goals, such as access and universal service, and protecting public interests in security and privacy. With the release of the Clinton Administration's Agenda for Action in 1993, the concept of the NII now encompasses many types of information and communication networks. Most analysts think of the NII not as a single system, but as a "system of systems," or "network of networks" that will carry voice, data, and video communications to homes, businesses, schools--to people wherever they are. Most visions of the NII have concentrated on developing the necessary infrastructure primarily through the expansion of the existing telephone network, cable television systems, and national computer networks (such as the Internet and the National Research and Education Network). However, wireless technologies will also play an important role in developing the NII. The capabilities of existing wireless technologies, such as TV and radio broadcasting, cellular telephony, and satellite communication are being extended through the use of digital technology, and emerging technologies such as advanced television (ATV), low-Earth orbiting satellites (LEOS), direct broadcasting satellites (DBS), and personal communication services (PCS), promise to bring even more new services to wider audiences and user groups not just nationally, but around the world. However, the role of wireless technologies and services in future telecommunications and information network(s) is not well understood. It is unclear how existing and emerging wireless technologies and services will relate to the wireline communication infrastructure and what role they will play in a competitive environment. How will they interconnect? What effects will radio-based systems have on wireline services and companies? How can their unique capabilities best be used to meet the goals of the NII--in rural and urban areas, and for businesses as well as consumers? In order to understand the economic, social, and regulatory implications of the increasing integration of wireline and wireless technologies, all parts of the emerging infrastructure must be viewed in the context of the whole. Thus, it will be important to discuss not only how wireless technologies will "fit into" the wireline parts of the NII, but also what effects wireless technologies and systems will have on the development of the wireline portions of the NII. II. Congressional Interest Congressional interest in the National Information Infrastructure is very broad, and a number of bills have been introduced in both houses which relate to the development of the NII. The House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, and its Science subcommittee, which requested this study, is concerned with expanding and extending the accessibility of U.S. information resources. This study should also be of interest to the House and Senate committees with jurisdiction over telecommunications matters. Other committees may also find the OTA study helpful, including the Judiciary committees (on antitrust matters), the Armed Services committees (for relevant applications to defense communications), and any committee with interest in specific applications of telecommunications technology--in education, governance, health care, or for the special problems of rural or urban areas. The Administration is also vitally concerned with NII issues. In September 1993, it released The National Information Infrastructure: Agenda for Action, which provides a broad vision of the Administration's goals for the NII and some of the issues that must be confronted to make it a reality. To consider these issues, the President established an Information Infrastructure Task Force (IITF), composed of high-level officials from key Federal agencies, and a private sector Advisory Council to provide advice and assistance to the IITF. The goal of these groups is to develop comprehensive policies that will promote the development of the NII, while balancing the needs of the private sector, government, and the public at large. Outside the Congress, the issues surrounding the development of the NII are important to a wide range of interests, from some of the Nation's largest corporations, who operate telecommunications systems or offer information and/or entertainment services, to the average American consumer who wants to communicate, obtain information, or be entertained. III. Topics to be addressed This study will provide a comprehensive and integrated view of wireless technologies as they relate to the development of the NII. Although the government will not build the NII per se, Federal, State, and local policies and regulations will have a substantial impact on the process of putting the system together as well as on ensuring that the interests of business and consumers are balanced and that larger social goals are advanced. Policy decisions regarding existing and emerging technologies and the integration of wireline and wireless systems and services will significantly affect what services are offered, when they become available, how much they will cost, and who should pay for them. Specifically, the Committee asked OTA to consider the following: *What effects should the convergence of wireline and wireless technologies and new industry alliances have on the regulation of communication and information services? *How can wireless technologies enhance the diversity of communication and information services available to the American people? *What are the social privacy and security implications of ubiquitous wireless communications that would provide widespread mobility and the ability to reach an individual anywhere? *What are the relevant federal policy options for ensuring that wireless technologies become an effective component of the NII? In addition, the Committee is concerned that proposed Federally-supported NII development and demonstration programs explore the fullest possible range of technology opportunities, applications, and issues, including those presented by wireless technologies. To further this objective, the Committee also asked OTA to identify research issues relating to wireless technologies that could be examined by future demonstration/application projects. To address these questions and concerns, OTA has identified several issue areas that will form the primary focus of the study: *Defining the NII Before developing specific policies to promote the NII, it will be important to understand the scope and capabilities of the existing communications infrastructure. Developing a comprehensive picture of this technology base is crucial because it is this base that will serve as the foundation on which future NII systems and services will be built. What telecommunication, computing, and information systems comprise the present infrastructure? How do wireline and wireless services coexist in today's infrastructure? And for the future: To what extent should wireless technologies be part of the NII? What Federal, State, and/or local policies are needed to ensure that wireless technologies become part of the NII as quickly and efficiently as possible? How can the development of (wireline and wireless) NII technologies be managed to reduce unnecessary duplication of systems? *Interconnection and Standards Perhaps the greatest challenge in creating the NII is the development of policies and rules to ensure that all parts of the NII work together. Users must be able to access the full features of the NII, and information/service providers must be confident that their product will reach its destination in substantially the same form as it was sent, regardless of the delivery system(s) used. In order for the NII to fulfill this promise, many different transmission systems--wireline and wireless--will need to be molded into an integrated infrastructure. Existing systems, such as broadcasting, cable television, computer networks, public telephone networks, cellular, and satellite communication systems, will have to be integrated with new systems, such as PCS and LEOS, so that information flows in, through, and among systems as easily and transparently as possible. One of the most important issues for ensuring interconnectivity is the development of technical standards that make connections--between systems and between various types of user equipment--easier. What barriers are there to such interconnectivity? How will these barriers affect the spread of wireless communications? What incentives exist or could be put in place to encourage or require systems to interconnect? How can the government support the process of standards development? *Access Access is a major concern for public interest groups and policymakers. Generally, access refers to the ability of people to get the services provided over the different systems that will make up the NII. Access can be considered on several different levels: --Physical access. The ability to connect to different networks determines what services an individual or business can receive (see above). For example, almost everyone in the country has a telephone, and can view at least one broadcast television station. Cable television systems pass 90 percent of U.S. households, and cellular telephone service is available to more than 60 percent of the population. Satellite systems now being developed promise to bring the benefits of nationwide, ubiquitous coverage for both telephony and video programming. --Utility and Usability. In addition to physical access, questions exist as to what services customers will actually use. For example, although cable is accessible to 90 percent of U.S. households, only about 65 percent actually subscribe. In addition, questions surround the development of interfaces to various systems and sources of information. Standardized interfaces, whether through a wireline or wireless system, will enhance the ability of users to access information wherever they are using whatever system. Systems that are difficult to use will not be successful. --Affordability. Access also depends on the price of services. Users may have physical access to services and want to use them, but if they are priced out of reach, this (physical) access is illusory. Policies designed to foster access must take into account the needs of companies to recoup investments, while insuring that all who need services can afford them. *Economic The deployment of wireless technologies as part of the Nation's communications infrastructure poses special challenges from an economic standpoint. --Complement or compete? Many emerging radio-based systems will provide services that are similar (or even identical) to those provided by existing telecommunications and information services providers. In some applications, these technologies may serve as an alternative to wireline systems, but in other instances radio-based technologies are likely to complement--extend or expand--the existing wireline infrastructure. Overall, what is the nature of the relationship between emerging wireless and wireline technologies? Will radio-based technologies complement existing systems or will they compete with them? What are the benefits and disadvantages of complementarity versus competition? What are the economic factors that affect the wireless industry? What factors enhance or block opportunities for new wireless service providers? --Industry Structure. The switch to digital technology, which allows companies to combine and transmit many different types of information simultaneously, is fundamentally changing the structure of the telecommunications industry. A number of companies are now negotiating or have entered into joint ventures and acquisitions of other telecommunication companies--both inside and outside previous areas of expertise. ATT's proposed acquisition of McCaw and Sprint's joining with Motorola's Iridium project are but two examples of the rapid changes taking place in the industry. These restructurings may provide important economies of size, scope, and scale, but could also concentrate control of some telecommunica- tions services in the hands of a few megacompanies. What are the implications of industry restructuring for the merging of wireless and wireline industries in the NII? What effects could this have on the provision of the widest possible range of services or the pursuit of goals such as universal service? For antitrust law? Inevitably, shakeouts will occur within the industry as new companies and services begin to establish themselves. What effect will this have on the overall provision of services? Is there a danger that consumers will be hurt in the process? What protections can and should be given to users? *Regulatory Another important, and unsettled, area of concern is how new radio technologies will be regulated. For many years, different communication systems have been regulated according to the different technologies they used and the different services they delivered--different regulatory structures have evolved to govern telephone, broadcasting, cable television, and private radio services. Today, the technological bases of these different regulatory regimes are fast disappearing. In a new era of digital technology, many different systems will be delivering the same services. Existing regulatory structures will likely be inadequate to address the rapid pace of change in services brought about by new technologies. Many complex issues will have to be considered: the roles of State vis-a-vis Federal regulators, public service requirements, access provisions, and universal service. Can regulations be developed that will provide a solid framework for infrastructure development while ensuring the flexibility necessary in a time of continual technological change? What regulatory changes are being considered that will affect the development and competitiveness of radio- based telecommunication services? How can the transition to new regulatory forms be made easier for businesses and consumers? What effects will a changing infrastructure have on the FCC and NTIA? What lessons can be learned from other countries regulatory experiences? And finally, what data is needed to formulate NII policy goals and assess progress toward meeting those goals? Is such information available? How easy/costly is it to get and maintain? *Societal Impacts The widespread adoption of wireless technologies will affect peoples' lives in many ways--most of which are still unknown. Many effects are likely to be positive, but negative implications are also possible. What impacts are wireless technologies likely to have on the American people? What larger social goals might be affected by the ubiquity of new communication services? What safeguards are needed to mitigate the potential negative effects of wireless technologies? How can positive outcomes be enhanced? Wireless technologies, for example, can improve communications access for under-served people, particularly in rural and other hard-to-serve areas. How might such improved access affect the economic potential of such areas, citizens' access to government services, and the functioning of democratic institutions? Specifically, how might schools, hospitals, businesses and government agencies use wireless technologies to improve operations and cut costs? Are there special problems facing such users in deploying wireless systems? Another area where the social impacts of wireless technologies may be important is in the area of security. If widely enough deployed, personal security and law enforcement may be improved. On the other hand, criminals may more easily evade detection and capture with wireless systems. What are the implications of digital wireless technologies for wire-tapping? Environmental sensing and reporting may also be improved, for similar reasons: low cost remote sensing locations may be more feasible than in the past, leading to potentially more effective response to accidents. What is the net effect of widespread deployment of wireless systems on security? A potentially troubling use of wireless technologies involves their ubiquity: since mobile telecommunications enables people to be contacted regardless of their location, they may lose a sense of privacy or individual autonomy, and may experience increased stress through being constantly on call. What are the implications of surveillance through wireless systems, particularly if mobile telecommunications use is required as a condition of employment? Users expectations of privacy while communicating are also of concern--should users expect the same level of privacy they get with their wired telephone? IV. Project Schedule and Plan The project will begin in February 1994, with expected delivery of a draft report to the Technology Assessment Board (TAB) in March 1995 and publication in June 1995. See attached schedule. 1. Project outreach. At the outset, an outreach strategy will be developed to ensure that all major interests in the private sector, public interest groups, and local, State, and Federal government are identified. This time will also be used to identify potential advisory panel members, workshop participants, and contractors. One result of this outreach will be to form an advisory panel, composed of major stakeholders from the private and public sectors, that will provide advice to OTA on project scope, content, and assistance in gathering relevant research materials. 2. Conduct research review. Relevant academic, governmental, commercial, and other literature and research reports would be reviewed to ensure that the project maximizes use of existing resources. 3. Interviewing and Site Visits. Telephone and in-person interviews will be conducted with stakeholders and site visits will be conducted to gather relevant data and opinions. Contracts will be let and workshops conducted as needed. 4. Synthesize research and analyze policy implications. Based on the material gathered from interviews, site visits, and contractor reports, research would be synthesized to form policy options for the Congress. 5. Preparation and review of draft report. Review draft would be circulated to the advisory panel and a wide cross- section of stakeholders to check the accuracy of the facts presented and sharpen the quality, fairness, and relevance of OTA's findings and options. 6. Prepare final report. Based on the comments received from outside reviewers and internal senior management review, the draft report would be revised and submitted to TAB for final approval. 10
